In 2004, life as a Democrat was fairly bleak.
The celebration misplaced the presidential election to George W. Bush for the second time. To make issues worse, Democratic candidate John Kerry misplaced the favored vote. The celebration was apparently dropping floor, having gained the favored vote in 2000 and misplaced the Electoral School thanks solely to a particularly shut (and disputed) loss in Florida. It was a distinct world again then, however Democrats felt that voters had flatly rejected what they needed to supply, even when operating in opposition to a Republican candidate broadly thought-about susceptible.
In 2024, life as a Democrat is as bleak in some ways because it was 20 years in the past. Votes are nonetheless being counted after the presidential election, however the Democratic presidential candidate is on monitor to lose the favored vote for the primary time in 20 years.
That lack of the favored vote has compelled a broader reckoning: Successful the favored vote “acted as a sort of balm: Sure, the Electoral School might have awarded the presidency to Bush and Trump, however at some stage, their administrations have been illegitimate, they weren’t sanctioned by the folks.” will,” stated Nicole Hemmer, a political historian at Vanderbilt College who specializes within the media, conservatism and the presidency.
With out assist “besides the favored vote,” Democrats face a harsh actuality. “For the primary time since 2004, this election felt like an embrace of conservatism, albeit a really completely different sort of conservatism than that related to the 2004 winner,” stated Kyle Kondik, editor in chief of Sabato’s Crystal Ball on the College Heart. of Virginia. for politics.
Now, as in 2004, Democrats are partaking in what can generously be seen as introspection (or, much less generously, a “round firing squad”) to chart a brand new course again to energy and assess what went so improper this time. The blame for that is up for debate: it could have been the economic systemDemocrats embrace of “awakening” President Joe Biden’s choice to run for a second time period, which many People actually preferred what trump was promotingboth any variety of different components.
Though it could be months earlier than it turns into clear what particularly went improper, the 2004 election and its aftermath may present some perception into how Democrats can transfer ahead.
In any case, 4 years after the Bush-Kerry debacle, Democrats gained the 2008 election in a landslide, and Barack Obama defeated John McCain. by virtually 10 million votes and enter the White Home with large majorities in Congress behind them.
What Democrats as we speak can study from the celebration’s 2004 defeat
There are apparent variations between 2004 and 2024. The 2004 election was dominated by 9/11 and the World Conflict on Terrorism that adopted. This 12 months, these points barely mattered, whereas Trump and Biden’s respective data, the economic system and the tradition wars took middle stage. Moreover, Kerry’s marketing campaign started by successful a really aggressive major, whereas Vice President Kamala Harris took workplace after Biden stepped apart and gave her his endorsement.
However the vibes amongst Democrats are comparable, and what they do subsequent might decide whether or not they see a revival within the 2026 midterms and past.
General, Democrats realized three classes from 2004. Whether or not one believes these classes apply to 2024 relies upon, largely, on what one believes went improper for Harris in her loss to Trump. However given the Democrats’ profitable comeback beginning in 2004, it is a historical past lesson price studying.
1) They adopted a 50-state technique
After the 2004 defeat, a preferred meme exploded throughout the Web (nonetheless considerably nascent): a map depicting the Democratic Occasion. The “United States of Canada” exists alongside the coasts and a republican “Jesus Land” encompasses the overwhelming majority of US territory..
If that appears reductive and problematic on a number of fronts, you are not improper, however the map, the aforementioned issues apart, served partly as shorthand to level out Democrats’ turnout downside. Sure, Kerry had gotten 9 million extra votes than Al Gore had 4 years earlier, however he was nonetheless virtually 3 million votes wanting catching Bush.
That hole revealed a vulnerability for Democrats: Their incapability to mobilize a broad coalition in swing states and past would translate into an Electoral School victory. Kerry couldn’t muster the sort of voter enthusiasm wanted to match Bush’s robust efficiency in rural areas and the outer suburbs.
To extend turnout, Democrats turned to Howard Dean, who ran a populist major marketing campaign however misplaced to Kerry.
Elected chairman of the Democratic Nationwide Committee in 2005, Dean turned an advocate of a “50-state technique.” The concept behind this technique was that Democrats ought to attempt to compete in each state, maximizing turnout in Democratic areas whereas decreasing Republican margins when potential.
This 12 months, former Democratic Nationwide Committee Chairwoman Donna Brazile as deanimagine that a part of the answer might be The return of the 50 States technique.. They don’t seem to be alone: ”We will not simply run within the few states we have to,” stated Claire Potter, professor emeritus of historical past on the New College. “The Democrats, in some methods, have actually backtracked on that technique, and I believe they have been improper to have performed so.”
The Harris marketing campaign – for very comprehensible causes – didn’t use Dean’s methodology. With only some months left to marketing campaign, Harris centered on swing states and choose demographic teams. He largely didn’t go to traditionally “secure” Democratic states. Whereas it isn’t clear that she would have been in a position to cease the bleeding in these locations, there have been necessary turns to the precise from From New York Metropolis to Southern California.
And it is unclear how nicely the 50-state principle has aged. In any case, Hillary Clinton elevated her fashionable vote whole after successful large in solidly Democratic states, however she was president for precisely zero days.
That technique was then accredited serving to Democrats make positive aspects within the 2006 midterm elections and serving to put Obama within the White Home in 2008.
And after 2024, when Democrats misplaced floor in virtually each county within the USa plan to extend the celebration’s reputation nationally is just not one thing it might afford to disregard.
2) Democrats reevaluated their messages
In 2004, Democrats had no response to the rise of the right-wing weblog Drudge Report and the consolidation of Fox Information round Republicans. Kerry was usually portrayed as an elitist with a costly haircutand right-wing commentators efficiently took benefit of certainly one of his strengths as a candidate: his army service in Vietnam – in a passive by means of viral assault adverts.
“There’s this sort of pretend assault on Kerry because the man from Harvard, as somebody pretending to have really fought in Vietnam,” Potter stated. “Bush can play the outsider card, regardless that he is an incumbent, regardless that he went to Yale, regardless that his father was president.”
In response, Democrats tried to reevaluate their general messaging technique. He influential e book Do not take into consideration an elephant! by cognitive linguist George Lakoff served as a information to reframing debates on their very own phrases and explaining their political positions by evoking values of empathy, justice, and neighborhood with out adopting the language of conservatives. In addition they embraced Dean, dubbed by the Washington Put up in 2005 as an “exterior rebel” who wore worn-out sneakers and flew coach, spending most of his time exterior DC.
In 2024, Democrats once more discovered themselves outnumbered by a new republican media machine – this time, together with folks like Joe Rogan and Theo Von – to convey your message. Harris, for her half, refused to seem on Rogan’s podcast, supposedly as a result of concern of how it will be perceived throughout the celebration.
3) Democrats sought to turn into a celebration of concepts
Kerry marketing campaign adviser Kenneth Baer stated that, in 2024, Democrats repeated the 2004 mistake of defining themselves as the alternative of Republicans.
“Sensible folks appear to have come round to the concept that you would be able to’t simply say Trump is horrible,” Baer stated, arguing that Democrats had the identical downside in 2004, when Kerry spent a lot of his marketing campaign criticizing Bush. as an alternative of doing it. outline affirmative causes for voting for Democrats. That required Democrats to “rethink all of our insurance policies and our approaches,” Baer stated.
Baer based the journal. Democracy: {a magazine} of concepts as a platform for these concepts. That is the place Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), then a professor at Harvard Legislation College, revealed a 2007 manifesto about how the federal government ought to regulate monetary merchandise like mortgages and bank cards. That concept would later give rise to the Client Monetary Safety Bureau.
Right now, some Democrats say the celebration nonetheless wants join higher with the working classhowever Baer identified that there are disagreement about what which means and if that ought to contain a financial or cultural focus.
The bounds of political technique
Democrats would very very similar to a silver bullet technique that ensures a 2004-like restoration. However the reality is, political technique and planning can solely go up to now. And that could be one of many largest classes from 20 years in the past.
The celebration’s return to energy in 2008 was due primarily to 2 components: Obama was a generationally politically gifted politician. George W. Bush was a generationally horrible president whose second time period included a botched and lethal response to Hurricane Katrina; an much more disastrous and lethal dealing with of the Iraq battle (the false pretenses of which got here totally to gentle throughout Bush’s second time period); and the 2008 monetary disaster and subsequent financial collapse.
“The situations that might collapse Bush’s assist in his second time period have been already in place when he gained reelection,” stated Hemmer, the political historian.
So Democrats’ efficiency in 2026, 2028 and past will probably have lots to do with Trump’s efficiency throughout his second time period.
Right now, preliminary exit polls counsel Trump is unpopulartheir proposed tariffs might be disastrous for the economic systemDemocrats can mobilize in opposition to his insurance policies as they did in his first time period, and he might solely have a really slender majority of the Home to work withwhich may hinder your schedule.
Nonetheless, if such a collapse happens, Democrats additionally need to be ready to make the most of it.
